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Severe storms with flooding risk across north Florida through Wednesday

A slow moving frontal system will deliver the potential for some severe wind gusts over 60 mph and possibly an isolated tornado through Wednesday night. Thunderstorms embedded within a large area of showers will continue through the afternoon, but the severe threat will increase later tonight. At that time, Storm Prediction Center forecasters say that storms could become surface based rather than elevated, which increases the potential for an isolated tornado. The Storm Prediction Center currently has all of the Florida panhandle in a zone of “marginal” severe weather risk, a level 1 out of 5, that continues into early Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, this system will impact areas of north Florida generally around Tallahassee and eastward, including Jacksonville and Gainesville. The area of ongoing showers and storms will impact the Capitol early in the day, then into Jacksonville and Gainesville in the afternoon and evening. Severe weather potential will be a bit higher in the warmth of the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has north central Florida in a zone of “marginal” severe weather risk for Wednesday, with a few isolated stronger storms capable of severe hail and winds.

Areas of north Florida including Tallahassee, Jacksonville and Gainesville have been assigned a “slight” risk for flash flooding Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will be possible from the early morning hours of Wednesday and continue all day before showers move out of the area Thursday. With the repeated rounds of heavy rain, there is a chance rain could overwhelm storm drainage at times and lead to flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting up to 4 inches of rain could fall in an area east of the state capitol.

Showers and storms will end statewide by Thursday evening. Dry weather will remain through the weekend, with our next chance of rain arriving by the middle of next week.