If you're looking for roller-coaster weather, look no further than meteorological fall, as both temperatures and precipitation are expected to come in above normal – a pattern that is a bit unusual, especially as North America heads closer to winter.
The latest outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates Florida has a higher probability of experiencing above-normal temperatures and precipitation from September through November.
Typically, on cloudy, rainy days, temperatures are held below average, but forecasters believe there will be enough variation this season to increase the likelihood that autumn will end up warmer than normal, rather than cooler.
Water temperatures around the Southeast coastline and in critical areas of the central and eastern Pacific make up a significant influence in seasonal predictions.
In the Pacific, sea surface temperature anomalies remain in a neutral state - generally between 0.5 degrees Celsius and -0.5 degrees Celsius. This status is commonly referred to as a “La Nada,” indicating that neither La Niña nor El Niño is in control of global weather patterns.
During these regimes, a more zonal (west-to-east) weather pattern often prevails across the nation, with fewer kinks in the jet stream. This configuration tends to keep cooler air bottled up further north, reducing the likelihood of early frosts or record lows across the Deep South.
The first frost typically occurs in late November along Interstate 10 corridor with the cold air mass moderating before reaching I-4. The average first frost and freeze dates have been gradually shifting later into the calendar year since record-keeping began in the late 1800s.
Additionally, water temperatures off the Florida coast and much of the western Atlantic basin are warm, with many areas remaining in the 82–87-degree Fahrenheit range.
These warm waters provide ample fuel for hurricanes and nor’easters, should areas of low pressure develop.
September is historically the busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, with four named storms that form and three that strengthen to hurricane status, according to data from the National Hurricane Center.
NOAA forecasters expect an increased number of tropical cyclones this year, and some moisture from these systems could reach the southeastern U.S. However, it’s impossible to predict the precise impact of any future storm at this stage.
Just because the first half of 2025 hurricane season was relatively quiet for the region doesn’t mean the second half will follow suit.
In 2024, Hurricane Helene made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend on Sept. 26, and Hurricane Milton didn’t strike Siesta Key, south of Tampa, until nearly mid-October.
Without tropical influences, some areas - especially along Florida’s southeast coast - may find it difficult to recover from any rainfall deficits.
The climate outlook might also be difficult for those hoping for cooler weather for football games or holidays, such as Halloween and Thanksgiving, as warmer weather could stick around longer than is typical.
And it comes on top of some cities across the Sunshine State experiencing an extremely warm summer, with Gainesville and Fort Pierce seeing their hottest season on record, and Jacksonville still in the running to finish the year with the most 90-degree days.
Meteorological fall will officially end on November 30 - the same date as the Atlantic basin hurricane season.