With fewer than 100 days remaining before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, scientists at the National Hurricane Center say tropical weather forecasting is at a turning point with the growing inclusion of artificial intelligence.
While forms of AI products have existed for years, Wallace Hogsett, a science operations officer at NOAA, said the agency increased its use of newly developed tools during the 2025 hurricane season.
“Last season was all about experimentation, including first working with our partners to conduct thorough verification and testing prior to using any AI tools for operational decisions. During the season, as forecasters gained experience, NHC began integrating these new AI weather prediction (AIWP) systems as guidance when preparing operational forecasts, alongside all of the other critical tools in our toolbox,” Hogsett stated in a weather agency question-and-answer segment.
The AI products were used in conjunction with a broader toolbox that includes long-established weather forecast models, satellite analysis and the experience of veteran forecasters.
Some of the AI products evaluated included Google's DeepMind and a system developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Hogsett expects more AI tools to be unveiled in the coming years, with each undergoing extensive evaluation before being integrated into the agency’s operations.
Most AI models are trained on global weather observations collected over past decades. Once considered operational, they apply what they have learned from historical events to generate future outlooks.
A cyclone from the 2025 season that highlighted the potential of the new technology was Hurricane Melissa.
Melissa rapidly strengthened into one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, with sustained winds around 185 mph and a minimum central pressure of 892 millibars.
The Category 5 hurricane made landfall in Jamaica, becoming one of the worst storms on record for the island.
According to the NHC, AI models identified the cyclone’s likely track and intensity earlier than some traditional guidance, but forecasters cautioned against focusing on an individual event’s successes or failures.
Despite the rapidly changing technology landscape, Hogsett said AI systems will not replace human forecasters.
“None of the models are perfect, and they never will be. Now more than ever, we need trusted experts in the loop to observe, synthesize, and make sense of the vast amounts of information. AI will likely assist in efficiently synthesizing information, but without experts in the loop to constantly evaluate and integrate new tools and technologies and communicate a coherent risk-based message, lives and property would be at greater risk,” Hogsett stated.
The 2026 hurricane season will begin on June 1 and run through Nov. 30.
Some of the cyclone names on this year’s list include Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.
In the Atlantic basin, the first named storm typically forms around June 20, while the first hurricane develops around Aug. 11.
