On Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center officially designated Invest 91L as Tropical Depression Two. The system has shown signs of better organization over the past 24 hours, with increased convection and a better-defined center of circulation. It is barely moving at 2 mph toward the north-northwest. Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph, and the system is expected to gradually intensify over the next few days.
The key point in the short term is that this system will be crawling over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. It could begin moving closer to the Florida Panhandle, but its center is expected to remain over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures across this region are between 85°F and 86°F, providing plenty of fuel for the system to strengthen.
What's guiding this system?
This system is caught between two high-pressure systems. One is located over the western Atlantic and could shift farther west, helping push the system westward and away from Florida. The other is positioned over the south-central and southwestern United States. There is a brief weakness between these two high-pressure systems that was initially forecast to allow a trough to pull the system northward. However, the latest forecasts indicate that the tropical system will likely become trapped between the two high-pressure systems. This setup is causing the system to crawl and will likely keep it moving very slowly west through the beginning of this week.
The big question now is how strong the high-pressure system over the central United States will become during the middle of the week. That will determine whether the system stays closer to the Gulf Coast or moves farther south over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. If the system remains close to the coast, it will likely stay a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds below 74 mph. However, if the high-pressure system strengthens and pushes Tropical Depression Two, the future Bertha, farther over the open Gulf waters, the system will have plenty of fuel to continue strengthening and could eventually reach hurricane status. Regardless of its long-term evolution, this is not expected to become a problem on the Florida Peninsula. In the short term, the National Hurricane Center has placed the western Florida Panhandle under a Tropical Storm Watch. This means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next 36 hours. Keep in mind that these Tropical Storm Watches could be upgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings in upcoming advisories.
The system will likely impact the Florida Panhandle with rounds of rain on and off through at least Tuesday afternoon. Winds are also expected to increase from Apalachicola westward to Pensacola, including Panama City Beach. For the Panhandle, periods of showers will continue as the system remains large and disorganized. Although it now has a well-defined center of circulation, it remains a broad, messy system that will continue to funnel deep tropical moisture into the Panhandle, especially along the Gulf Coast. Keep in mind that we are no longer expecting the extremely heavy rainfall that was forecast earlier last week.
Monday will likely be a rainy day from the Tampa Bay area northward to the Panhandle. Breezy conditions are also expected. Overall, rain chances will begin decreasing on Tuesday across much of the Panhandle. As rain chances decrease, sunshine will become more abundant, allowing temperatures to climb once again.
Impacts for the Florida Panhandle
In the short term, heavy rainfall is expected across Apalachicola through the beginning of this week, as it will be the closest land area to the deepest convection. The Big Bend region is forecast to receive between 2 and 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts exceeding 5 inches through Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, parts of Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and the coastal Panhandle, including Pensacola, could receive 3 to 5 inches of rain, with isolated totals exceeding 5 inches.
Keep in mind that these rainfall totals could vary depending on the exact track of the storm's center. If the center moves closer to the Gulf Coast, higher rainfall amounts would be expected, particularly along the immediate coast and nearby inland areas. However, if the center remains farther south over the Gulf, rainfall totals across the Panhandle would likely be lower. The same is true for the wind. If the center of the storm tracks closer to the coast, wind gusts could exceed 50 mph at times, the farther from land the system remains, the lower the winds.
We will be following this system closely and bring you an update on Monday morning.
