The proximity of a stationary front and the arrival of the next front will continue to pump instability across the southern half of the Peninsula. Between the weekend and Monday, a stationary front will remain in place between South and Central Florida. This front will create instability, and with ample moisture available, showers and thunderstorms will be prolific, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.
Heavy rain could bring between 1 and 2 inches of rain, but in some areas, where storms are more persistent, there could be over 4 inches of rain each day. Remember, the ground is well-saturated, especially over South Florida, so that that flash floods may develop. There is a marginal risk of flash floods for the central and southern portions of Florida through Monday.
By Monday night, the next cold front will enter the state; therefore, rain chances increase across North Florida and the Panhandle on Sunday afternoon and into the early part of the week. These showers will be scattered, with a few thunderstorms present. The cold front will move south through Central Florida, but then also lose speed and likely become a stationary front by the middle of next week over or near Lake Okeechobee. This would result in a repeat of the rainy pattern, similar to the one expected this upcoming weekend.
We need to monitor these sagging fronts closely this time of year. If enough energy is “left behind,” a low-pressure system could spin up close. We will be monitoring this closely and providing you with updates throughout the coming days.